Undercount costs California House seat, federal funds

By Yomi Akinyemi
The Guardsman

California  officials estimate the U.S. Census Bureau undercounted at least 1.5  million state residents, according to the Los Angeles Times. Officials  also believe the undercount could have cost the state an extra House  seat.

The  census declared the state to have 37.3 million residents, but according  to a report by the Los Angeles Times, data from the state Department of  Finance shows California’s population was 38.8 million on July 1, 2010.

Apportionment  in the U.S. House of Representatives is based on census figures. The  2012 reapportionment will affect 18 states, and 12 congressional seats  will be reassigned to representatives in the 113th Congress, which  begins Jan. 1, 2013.

Sun  Belt states Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina, Utah and Nevada will each  gain one seat, while Florida adds two. With approximately 4.3 million  new residents in the recent census, Texas gained the most of any state  with four new seats. Louisiana is the only Sun Belt state to lose a  seat.

Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio and New York are among nine Midwest and Northeast states to lose seats.

City  College political science professor Richard Baum said the litany of  congressional losses in Democratic stronghold states has given Texas and  other Sun Belt states more say in future presidential and congressional  elections. These states, who tend to vote Republican, will also have  more electoral votes in 2012.

“If  the 2012 Presidential election is close, this could be a big problem  for Obama getting reelected,” Baum said. “In states like Texas, with a  winner-take-all electoral college based on the number of popular votes,  the electoral college could be to his detriment.”

The  once-a-decade redistricting, Baum said, is a win for Republicans who  gained more governorships and offices in state legislatures across the  nation and will draw districts that will generally favor them. But the  effect of a rise in Hispanic population — who, according to the Pew  Hispanic Center voted 60 percent in favor of Democrats during the  mid-term elections — could also hurt Republicans in the Sun Belt.

Baum  said in theory, the recent election results show the shift of power in  U.S. politics as Southern state politicians have become more powerful.  “Yet the population makeup of these states could result in a rise in  elections of more conservative Democrats,” he said.

In April, the census will release local data that will be used, if needed, for redistricting purposes.

Locally,  federal law states that newly drawn districts must fit the city's  geographic landscape and have about the same number of residents. More  importantly, the districts must adequately reflect the demographics of  the community.

Baum  said that although there are strict guidelines to prevent  gerrymandering, there are several methods legislatures use to benefit  their party. Instead of drawing lines that ostensibly favor them, the  ruling party can redistrict to weaken the opposition party strongholds  and capitalize on the new up-for-grabs districts.

The  Los Angeles Times report also states that California officials believe  undercounting in the last decennial census cost the state about $1.5  billion in federal funds allocation.

The  Brookings Institution, a nonprofit public policy organization, stated  that about 20 percent of state government budgets come from federal  grants, and erroneous census data costs states a portion of the $447  billion annual federal funds disbursed.